Nos derniers articles

This paper summarizes the use of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for modeling large insurance claims, particularly within reinsurance, where managing tail risk is paramount.
The core argument is that standard EVT must be adapted to overcome unique actuarial data challenges, including censoring (due to limits/delays), truncation (due to maximum possible losses), and data scarcity.
Key adaptations discussed include:
Truncation and Tempering Models to account for limits or weakening tail behavior.
Censoring-Adapted Estimators (e.g., modified Hill) for incomplete data.
Splicing/Composite Models that combine body and tail distributions (e.g., Mixed Erlang/Generalized Pareto) for a full-range fit.
Advanced Regression and Multivariate Models to incorporate covariates (like climate change effects) and analyze spatial dependencies.
A profound, tailored application of EVT is deemed critical for sound pricing and risk management of catastrophic risks.

The paper summarizes a study of U.S. listed firms (2010‑2022) that examines how major cyber incidents—defined as events affecting ≥10,000 individuals or disclosed in an 8‑K—drive lasting upgrades in personnel, technology, and architecture. Findings indicate a 27% rise in cybersecurity hiring that persists for at least two years, alongside increased adoption of specialized software (+30%), cloud services (+11%), and memory‑safe languages (+50‑60%). Breached firms often surpass peers, and spillover effects occur through industry and IT‑system similarity networks, but not via geographic proximity. Cyber‑insurance coverage correlates with muted responses, suggesting potential moral hazard.

Ces normes établissent les critères que les autorités de surveillance appliqueront pour identifier les (ré)assureurs tenus d'intégrer des analyses macroprudentielles dans leur évaluation interne des risques et de la solvabilité (ORSA) et dans l'application du principe de la personne prudente (PPP). Cette initiative s'inscrit dans le cadre de la révision de la directive Solvabilité II, visant à renforcer la stabilité financière du secteur.

L'approche de sélection retenue est hybride, combinant un critère quantitatif et des critères qualitatifs pour un ciblage précis. Le critère principal est un seuil de 20 milliards d'euros de total d'actifs, relevé en réponse aux retours des parties prenantes pour mieux garantir la proportionnalité. Il est complété par des critères qualitatifs (tels que l'interconnexion, le type d'activité, la substituabilité et le risque de liquidité). Ces derniers offrent aux superviseurs une flexibilité fondée sur le risque, leur permettant d'ajouter ou de retirer des entités afin de capturer les risques non liés à la seule taille de bilan et d'assurer une application judicieuse.
Le rapport final, incluant l'analyse d'impact et les retours de la consultation, a été soumis à la Commission européenne pour adoption formelle.

EIOPA has published its final report on the draft 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀 (𝗥𝗧𝗦) that will shape how insurers integrate macroprudential risk into both the 𝗢𝗥𝗦𝗔 and the 𝗣𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (𝗣𝗣𝗣). These RTS are a key outcome of the Solvency II review and aim to ensure consistent, proportionate application of the new macroprudential requirements across the EU.

At the heart of the RTS is a hybrid identification approach for determining which undertakings must perform enhanced macroprudential analyses:

🔹 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱

Insurers and groups with total assets above EUR 20 billion are presumptively in scope. This threshold—raised from the initially proposed EUR 12 billion after consultation—accounts for inflation and seeks to balance financial stability monitoring with regulatory burden.

🔹 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲, 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸-𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮

Supervisors can add entities below the threshold or exclude those above it based on:

• Interconnectedness with the financial system

• Systemically relevant activities (e.g., derivatives use, common exposures, guarantees, VA products)

• Substitutability concerns

• Liquidity risk

• Duration mismatch, leverage, or reliance on illiquid/opaque assets (for PPP analyses)

This flexibility should ensure proportionality while maintaining a consistent baseline for supervisory convergence.

The RTS respond to new legislative mandates introduced by the 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗜𝗜 review (Directive (EU) 2025/24), which require insurers to consider both outside-in and inside-out risks—reflecting EIOPA’s view that systemic risk in insurance can emerge through direct failure of key players or through behaviors that amplify shocks across the market.

Public consultation (Oct 2024–Jan 2025) generated valuable feedback, particularly around the asset threshold and the challenge of assessing “inside-out” systemic risks. EIOPA’s final approach is intended to reflect these insights while staying true to its mandate: strengthening the macroprudential framework without imposing unnecessary burdens.

The desired result is a balanced, forward-looking framework that enhances supervisory dialogue, supports financial stability, and reinforces the link between micro- and macroprudential perspectives.

The final RTS have now been submitted to the European Commission for adoption.

This study explores how natural disasters challenge traditional risk management and insurance mechanisms. Researchers developed a three-strategy evolutionary game model to examine the competition among formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance. The model incorporates insurance company profits to aid optimal pricing. Findings suggest that basis risk and loss ratios strongly influence insurance adoption. Low basis risk and high loss ratios favor index insurance, while moderate loss ratios lead to informal risk sharing. Low loss ratios often result in no insurance uptake. Accurately estimating risk aversion and risk sharing ratios is essential for forecasting index insurance market trends.

𝗘𝗜𝗢𝗣𝗔 released its July 2025 𝙄𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝘿𝙖𝙨𝙝𝙗𝙤𝙖𝙧𝙙, offering an assessment of the European insurance sector's financial health as of Q1 2025 Solvency II data and Q2 2025 market data. Overall, the report indicates a stable risk landscape at a medium level for the European insurance sector, demonstrating notable resilience. However, it also highlights a negative outlook in certain areas over the next year, influenced by complex global dynamics such as geopolitical tensions and market volatility. Specifically, market risks due to fixed income volatility and cyber and digitalization risks are identified as growing concerns, necessitating continued vigilance despite general stability.

This paper introduces an 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 designed to cover 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘃𝘆-𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀, which are extreme and potentially limitless financial damages, often associated with natural disasters. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆-𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 (𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘅-𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱) 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗿, 𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗵𝗶𝗰 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀. A key contribution is the development of a 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻 and a 𝘁𝘄𝗼-𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 that can leverage readily available covariate data, even when comprehensive loss data is scarce. Empirical analysis using both 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹-𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗼 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 demonstrates that 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 by providing better coverage for the same premium, especially benefiting regions with limited data. The authors highlight the practical advantages of 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 and 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 offered by the parametric component.

This academic paper proposes these 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:

• The analysis provides a framework for introducing index insurance in competition with traditional products, emphasizing demand and solvency.

• Key drivers for index insurance demand are policyholder risk aversion, compensation speed advantage over traditional products, and its pricing (loading factor).

• The proposed hybrid product effectively balances the strengths of both insurance types by applying index insurance where it is “most suitable for policyholders,” accelerating compensation, and potentially reducing premiums.

• The methodology can help insurers identify specific loss types for which index compensation is preferred, optimizing portfolio structure and claims management.

• Future work will address modeling demand for index insurance in situations where traditional indemnity-based insurance is unavailable, requiring a “more nuanced approach to calibrate the utility function.”

This consultation package is aimed at easing the reporting burden on insurance and reinsurance companies under the Solvency II framework. The proposed amendments seek to reduce reporting requirements by at least 26% for solo undertakings and 36% for small and non-complex undertakings. Key changes include reducing template frequency, deleting annual templates, and introducing technical simplifications. The EIOPA expects these changes to substantially reduce the burden on European insurers without compromising policyholder protection or financial stability. Stakeholders can provide feedback via the EU Survey until October 10, 2025.

This report examines how European (re)insurers address biodiversity risks, which threaten financial stability due to their complexity and links with climate risks. Despite challenges in quantifying impacts, one in five insurers references biodiversity in their risk assessments, though mostly qualitatively. Promising practices show growing awareness, but regional variations and limited metrics hinder progress. EIOPA calls for enhanced collaboration to improve data, models, and risk management, emphasizing the need to better understand the climate-biodiversity nexus and explore nature-based solutions to address insurance gaps.