Nos derniers articles

This study explores how Machiavellianism, a manipulative personality trait, fuels malicious insider behavior through the Fraud Triangle’s elements: pressure, opportunity, and rationalization. Analyzing 768 U.S. employees via PLS-SEM, researchers found Machiavellianism strongly influences all three, with rationalization as the primary driver of unethical intent. The findings highlight rationalization’s role in justifying malicious acts, urging organizations to bolster ethical cultures and accountability to curb insider threats. By linking personality traits to situational factors, the study enhances cybersecurity risk modeling and advocates for behaviorally informed insider threat prevention strategies.

This paper introduces a robust method for evaluating Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) when data distribution can't be simulated. Using rolling data windows as proxies for independent samples, the approach effectively assesses worst-case risk. Applied to Danish fire insurance data, it outperformed traditional DRO (distributional risk optimization) methods—achieving accurate, less conservative estimates in 87% of cases. This advancement enables reliable risk management even with limited tail data. Future research will focus on refining robustness guarantees and integrating extreme value theory into decision-making models involving rare but impactful events.

The report underscores the robustness of Europe’s insurance, reinsurance, and pension sectors despite a volatile macroeconomic environment. Strong capital positions persist, with median Solvency II ratios slightly down but stable. Premium growth surged, with non-life up 8.2% and life at 13.8%. Profitability improved, with median return on assets at 0.7%. However, it points out that risks from exchange rate volatility, elevated interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and cyber threats require vigilant monitoring. It also notes significant US equity exposure, urging caution amid potential market corrections.

Face à un contexte géopolitique tendu, France Assureurs appelle à réorienter le règlement FIDA pour un partage des données financières et d’assurance plus compétitif, sécurisé et centré sur le client. Trois priorités sont mises en avant : garantir la compétitivité via un déploiement progressif et une sécurité juridique accrue, préserver la souveraineté européenne en excluant les géants non-européens, et répondre aux besoins réels des clients avec un encadrement strict du traitement des données. Malgré des avancées dans les discussions, des ajustements restent nécessaires pour protéger les consommateurs et renforcer la cyber-résilience.

The German and European banking sector is undergoing rapid transformation due to digitalization, ESG integration, regulatory changes, demographic shifts, and increased competition from FinTechs. Key challenges include managing complexity, leveraging AI and data, optimizing business models, and ensuring resilience and security. Banks must adapt quickly to survive, with successful integration of AI and ESG being crucial. Consolidation and evolution towards technology-driven or platform-based approaches are likely. Banks face a "transformation trilemma" of managing digital, regulatory, and ESG changes while maintaining profitability.
THE PAPER IS IN GERMAN

For years, "continuous monitoring" in cybersecurity lacked a clear definition, forcing improvised security practices. This paper introduces QUARC, a formal model that quantifies cybersecurity risk and links it to precise detection and response times. QUARC provides a robust, weight-free probabilistic risk function, translating this risk into concrete operational cadences using hazard and queue theories. This model offers a universal standard, allowing regulators to enforce testable compliance, security teams to monitor real-time conformance, and insurers to price risk accurately. QUARC transforms a vague policy into a measurable, enforceable reality, closing a critical loophole exploited by attackers.

This study analyzed six years of 10-K filings from 45 firms affected by ransomware, labeling 6,282 cybersecurity-related statements. Findings show disclosures increasingly focus on prospective risks and mitigation strategies, but fewer than half mention incident responses, revealing a lack of transparency. Firms often fail to connect potential risks to actual damages, highlighting limited awareness of ransomware threats.

This article presents modeling approaches—both structural and reduced-form—to improve the understanding and prediction of environmental risks. It enhances existing models for better risk assessment and pricing, particularly in infrastructure and land use contexts. Potential extensions include advanced temperature and rainfall modeling, such as stochastic mean-reversion and regime-switching Lévy processes. The paper also suggests future research comparing insurance pricing methods and exploring parametric insurance mechanisms, where payouts are triggered by measurable parameters rather than actual losses. These developments aim to refine environmental risk management and insurance strategies.

State-sponsored cyberattacks are a growing and serious threat to financial stability, particularly as geopolitical tensions rise. The financial sector and regulators must prioritize cyber resilience and coordinated defense strategies to mitigate systemic risk.

Insurance Europe responded to EIOPA's draft Opinion on AI governance in insurance, supporting clarity on existing rules but raising concerns over potential new obligations. It cautioned that the draft's language might lead to supervisory expectations being misinterpreted as binding requirements, conflicting with the EU's simplification goals for smaller firms. Insurance Europe also highlighted risks of dual supervision in some regions and emphasized the need for clear distinctions between different AI types and user roles. It urged EIOPA to focus on aligning the Opinion with established frameworks like Solvency II and GDPR for effective oversight.