This study explores how Machiavellianism, a manipulative personality trait, fuels malicious insider behavior through the Fraud Triangle’s elements: pressure, opportunity, and rationalization. Analyzing 768 U.S. employees via PLS-SEM, researchers found Machiavellianism strongly influences all three, with rationalization as the primary driver of unethical intent. The findings highlight rationalization’s role in justifying malicious acts, urging organizations to bolster ethical cultures and accountability to curb insider threats. By linking personality traits to situational factors, the study enhances cybersecurity risk modeling and advocates for behaviorally informed insider threat prevention strategies.
This paper introduces a robust method for evaluating Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) when data distribution can't be simulated. Using rolling data windows as proxies for independent samples, the approach effectively assesses worst-case risk. Applied to Danish fire insurance data, it outperformed traditional DRO (distributional risk optimization) methods—achieving accurate, less conservative estimates in 87% of cases. This advancement enables reliable risk management even with limited tail data. Future research will focus on refining robustness guarantees and integrating extreme value theory into decision-making models involving rare but impactful events.
The report underscores the robustness of Europe’s insurance, reinsurance, and pension sectors despite a volatile macroeconomic environment. Strong capital positions persist, with median Solvency II ratios slightly down but stable. Premium growth surged, with non-life up 8.2% and life at 13.8%. Profitability improved, with median return on assets at 0.7%. However, it points out that risks from exchange rate volatility, elevated interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and cyber threats require vigilant monitoring. It also notes significant US equity exposure, urging caution amid potential market corrections.