Information, Uncertainty and Espionage

"Decision theory, both orthodox and behavioural, depicts decision rather narrowly as a prioritisation task undertaken within a delineated problem space where the probabilities “sum to one”. From such a perspective, certain perennial challenges in intelligence and counterintelligence appear resolvable when in fact they are not, at least not when approached from the usual direction."

Corporate Governance and Sustainability

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"Sustainability and social inequality are ‘grand challenges’ with a strong impact on companies and investors. The dominant theories and institutions of corporate governance present significant constraints on the capacity of practitioners, including company and fund managers, to engage in a timely and successful way with these grand challenges."

The Road Less Travelled: Keynes and Knight on Probability and Uncertainty

"The possibilities of a Keynesian-Knightian synthesis as a way forward are considered by comparing these signposts. It is argued that, although there is some common ground between Knight and Keynes, there are fundamental differences particularly associated with Keynes’s concept of weight of argument."

Correlations in Operational Risk Stress Testing: Use and Abuse

"Evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic had minimal effect on operational risk losses in 2020 is presented and the effect of model risk is emphasized. Our results show that the existence or otherwise of significant correlations depends on the regression model used, whether data series show trends, the time window concerned, geographical location and the type of financial institution."