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"Our model handles typical stop-loss reinsurance contracts. We show that a three-point distribution achieves the worst-case VaR of the total retained loss of the insurer, from which the closed-form solutions of the worst-case distribution and optimal deductible are obtained. Moreover, we show that the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk of the total retained loss of the insurer is equal to the worst-case VaR, and thus the optimal deductible is the same in both cases."
" In order to quantify resilience uncertainty across the network resolutions (from macro-scale network statistics to individual node dynamics), we propose an arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion method to identify the probability of a node in losing its resilience and how the different model parameters contribute to this risk on a single node."
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"... we find that the Bayesian approach outperforms the classical one in identifying whether a model is correctly specified which is the principal aim of any backtesting framework. The power of the methodology is due to its ability to test individual model parameters and hence identify which aspects of a model are misspecified as well as the degree of misspecification."