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Addressing Adversarial Machine Learning (𝗔𝗠𝗟) in financial systems is like designing a bank vault: not only must the vault be robust enough to withstand sophisticated attacks (𝗔𝗠𝗟 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲𝘀), but regulators also require that the complex mechanisms inside are transparent and explainable to auditors (𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀). Meanwhile, the bank must ensure that the security measures don't slow down transactions (𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻/𝗮𝗰𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲-𝗼𝗳𝗳) and that its staff has the specialized knowledge to operate and repair the mechanism (𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗴𝗮𝗽).

The geospatial Agent-Based Model (ABM) framework outlined in this article enables financial institutions, including insurers, to quantify direct and cascading climate risks, capturing spatial and temporal dynamics and supply chain disruptions overlooked by traditional models. It supports climate scenario analysis for enhanced risk assessment and portfolio management, revealing systemic risks affecting even indirectly exposed agents. The framework evaluates cost-effective adaptation strategies, showing how firms’ adaptive behaviors, like pre-emptive capital increases, reduce climate impacts. By integrating geospatial climate data with economic models, it bridges gaps between climate projections and financial decision-making, aiding risk management and capital allocation.

"We model a setting where a firm must choose when to adapt to climate-induced resource scarcity based on objective expectations of climate change (climate projections), and is influenced by both risk (annual variability in climate projections) and ambiguity (inability to assign probabilities to various climate projections)."