"... we propose an approach to estimate very large losses similar to that used by Fermi and Drake to estimate the existence of extraterrestrial life. It consists of supposing the event of interest is the result of a concatenation of independent factors and estimating the probability of each factor. The problem is that the events in the causal chain might be events that have never been observed, which ties our subject to that of the estimation of probabilities of rare events."
"While stress testing has modernized banks’ internal risk management by spurring the acquisition of highly skilled risk management talent, recent changes to the tests could erode its efficacy."
"Using data on credit scores matched with unique information on firm level commercial insurance purchases, we find that financing constraints lead to higher insurance spending. We adopt a regression discontinuity design and show that financially constrained firms spend 5–14% more on insurance than otherwise similar unconstrained firms. "
"... nothing meaningful for regulation can be determined solely by looking at the data itself. Data is what data does. Personal data is harmful when its use causes harm or creates a risk of harm. It is not harmful if it is not used in a way to cause harm or risk of harm."
"This paper ... documents some of the most prominent cases of misconduct, which it summarizes in terms of operational risk losses (using Turner’s framework for analyzing organizational disasters) and also details some egregious examples of operational risk events ..."
"... an overview of how machine learning can help in categorizing textual descriptions of operational loss events into Basel II event types. We apply PYTHON implementations of support vector machine and multinomial naive Bayes algorithms to precategorized Öffentliche Schadenfälle OpRisk (ÖffSchOR) data to demonstrate that operational loss events can be automatically assigned to one of the seven Basel II event types with very few costs and satisfactory accuracy."
"... the information provided by past losses results from them capturing hard to quantify factors such as the quality of operational risk controls, the risk culture, and the risk appetite of the bank."
"... compares two industries where legislative requirements differ, but it finds the same pattern: the ideals of enterprise risk management are being not implemented in practice."
"... blockchain networks are vulnerable to anomalies and frauds that can have serious consequences for the integrity and security of these networks. In this primer, we provide an overview of the definition and properties of blockchain technology, and discuss the types and examples of anomalies and frauds that occur in these networks."
"... this study experimentally examines whether using an artificial intelligence system with interactive and structured information processing features augments auditor judgment when performing a fraud risk assessment."