801 résultats pour « Autre »

The Bayesian approach to analysis of financial operational risk

"The article provides a short overview of methods for constructing mathematical models in the form of Bayesian Networks for modeling operational risks under conditions of uncertainty. Let’s provide the sequence of actions necessary for creating a model in the form of the network, methods for computing a probabilistic output in BN, and give examples of using the tool to solve practical problems of operational financial risk estimation."

Building up Cyber Resilience by Better Grasping Cyber Risk Via a New Algorithm for Modelling...

"We propose here an analysis of the database of the cyber complaints filed at the Gendarmerie Nationale.We perform this analysis with a new algorithm developed for non-negative asymmetric heavy-tailed data, which could become a handy tool in applied fields. This method gives a good estimation of the full distribution including the tail. Our study confirms the finiteness of the loss expectation, necessary condition for insurability."

Imbalanced Data Issues in Machine Learning Classifiers: A Case Study

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"... the methods discussed in this paper can apply to general machine learning classifiers in applications with imbalanced data issues, by using a case study in credit card fraud detection this paper calls practitioners’ attention to the imbalanced data problems therein, where class imbalance is often mistreated and lacks theoretical discussion."

Modeling Very Large Losses.

"... we propose an approach to estimate very large losses similar to that used by Fermi and Drake to estimate the existence of extraterrestrial life. It consists of supposing the event of interest is the result of a concatenation of independent factors and estimating the probability of each factor. The problem is that the events in the causal chain might be events that have never been observed, which ties our subject to that of the estimation of probabilities of rare events."

Financing Constraints and Risk Management: Evidence From Micro‑Level Insurance Data

"Using data on credit scores matched with unique information on firm level commercial insurance purchases, we find that financing constraints lead to higher insurance spending. We adopt a regression discontinuity design and show that financially constrained firms spend 5–14% more on insurance than otherwise similar unconstrained firms. "

Machine Learning for Categorization of Operational Risk Events Using Textual Description

"... an overview of how machine learning can help in categorizing textual descriptions of operational loss events into Basel II event types. We apply PYTHON implementations of support vector machine and multinomial naive Bayes algorithms to precategorized Öffentliche Schadenfälle OpRisk (ÖffSchOR) data to demonstrate that operational loss events can be automatically assigned to one of the seven Basel II event types with very few costs and satisfactory accuracy."