"We find that default premium, yield slope and inflation are the main drivers of climate transition risk, and that, in terms of capital shortfall, the cost of rescuing more risk-exposed financial firms from climate transition losses is relatively manageable. Simulation of climate risks over a five-year period shows that disorderly transition can be expected to imply significant costs for banks, while financial services and real estate firms remain more sheltered."
"We demonstrate the use of this risk measure for describing the tail risks in financial markets as well as the risks associated with natural hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis, and excessive rainfall)."
"We distinguish three main types of cyber risks: idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic cyber risks. While for idiosyncratic and systematic cyber risks, classical actuarial and financial mathematics appear to be well-suited, systemic cyber risks require more sophisticated approaches that capture both network and strategic interactions."
"Cost-benefit analysis embodies techniques for the analysis of possible harmful outcomes when the probability of those outcomes can be quantified with reasonable confidence. But when those probabilities cannot be quantified (“deep uncertainty”), the analytic path is more difficult. The problem is especially acute when potentially catastrophic outcomes are involved, because ignoring or marginalizing them could seriously skewing the analysis. Yet the likelihood of catastrophe is often difficult or impossible to quantify because such events may be unprecedented (runaway AI or tipping points for climate change) or extremely rare (global pandemics caused by novel viruses in the modern world). OMB’s current guidance to agencies on unquantifiable risks is now almost twenty years old and in serious need of updating. It correctly points to scenario analysis as an important tool but it fails to give guidance on the development of scenarios."
"This Article provides a novel heuristic framework for understanding the three elements of Risk, Reward and Resilience (the Triple R Framework), which synthesizes and integrates insights from diverse disciplines and domains. It sets out the drivers of each element, shows how they are connected and sketches the policy choices which they present, before applying the framework to the COVID-19 supply chain shock and China’s economic coercion of Australia."
"We model a setting where a firm must choose when to adapt to climate-induced resource scarcity based on objective expectations of climate change (climate projections), and is influenced by both risk (annual variability in climate projections) and ambiguity (inability to assign probabilities to various climate projections)."
"This model allows to be more conservative regarding extreme events while keeping tractability. We give a method based on Conditional Least Squares to estimate the parameters on daily data and estimate our model on eight major European cities... This new model allows to better assess the risk related to temperature volatility."
"The opposition in a number of countries to the inclusion of nuclear energy in a sustainable energy portfolio, in part due to the dread of what the “nuclear” word inspires, has limited quantitative scientific foundation of the real benefits and risks. This has been amplified by the lack of a sound operational risk estimate due to the scarcity of the relevant empirical data."
"The potential use of the proposed risk measures in insurance is illustrated by two concrete applications, capital risk allocation and premia calculation under uncertainty."
"Our findings, based on LDA topic modeling and term frequency, indicate that already at the time of the crisis Israeli banks had shifted the focus of their reports from market and operational risks to credit and liquidity risks. The introduction of Basel III amplified this trend..."