Statistics of Extremes for the Insurance Industry
This paper summarizes the use of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for modeling large insurance claims, particularly within reinsurance, where managing tail risk is paramount.
The core argument is that standard EVT must be adapted to overcome unique actuarial data challenges, including censoring (due to limits/delays), truncation (due to maximum possible losses), and data scarcity.
Key adaptations discussed include:
Truncation and Tempering Models to account for limits or weakening tail behavior.
Censoring-Adapted Estimators (e.g., modified Hill) for incomplete data.
Splicing/Composite Models that combine body and tail distributions (e.g., Mixed Erlang/Generalized Pareto) for a full-range fit.
Advanced Regression and Multivariate Models to incorporate covariates (like climate change effects) and analyze spatial dependencies.
A profound, tailored application of EVT is deemed critical for sound pricing and risk management of catastrophic risks.
The core argument is that standard EVT must be adapted to overcome unique actuarial data challenges, including censoring (due to limits/delays), truncation (due to maximum possible losses), and data scarcity.
Key adaptations discussed include:
Truncation and Tempering Models to account for limits or weakening tail behavior.
Censoring-Adapted Estimators (e.g., modified Hill) for incomplete data.
Splicing/Composite Models that combine body and tail distributions (e.g., Mixed Erlang/Generalized Pareto) for a full-range fit.
Advanced Regression and Multivariate Models to incorporate covariates (like climate change effects) and analyze spatial dependencies.
A profound, tailored application of EVT is deemed critical for sound pricing and risk management of catastrophic risks.