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This study explores how natural disasters challenge traditional risk management and insurance mechanisms. Researchers developed a three-strategy evolutionary game model to examine the competition among formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance. The model incorporates insurance company profits to aid optimal pricing. Findings suggest that basis risk and loss ratios strongly influence insurance adoption. Low basis risk and high loss ratios favor index insurance, while moderate loss ratios lead to informal risk sharing. Low loss ratios often result in no insurance uptake. Accurately estimating risk aversion and risk sharing ratios is essential for forecasting index insurance market trends.

This academic paper proposes these 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:

• The analysis provides a framework for introducing index insurance in competition with traditional products, emphasizing demand and solvency.

• Key drivers for index insurance demand are policyholder risk aversion, compensation speed advantage over traditional products, and its pricing (loading factor).

• The proposed hybrid product effectively balances the strengths of both insurance types by applying index insurance where it is “most suitable for policyholders,” accelerating compensation, and potentially reducing premiums.

• The methodology can help insurers identify specific loss types for which index compensation is preferred, optimizing portfolio structure and claims management.

• Future work will address modeling demand for index insurance in situations where traditional indemnity-based insurance is unavailable, requiring a “more nuanced approach to calibrate the utility function.”